Our Faculty Member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özkan Kale’s Project was Found Eligible to Support under the Program of TÜBİTAK ARDEB-1001 "Earthquake Research Special Call".
Our Civil Engineering Department Faculty Member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özkan Kale's project titled " Regional Representation of Ground Motion Epistemic Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard Analysis of Turkey by Backbone Approach and Investigation of Its Common Impact" was found eligible to receive support for 36 months under the TÜBİTAK ARDEB-1001 “Earthquake Research Special Call”.
In this project, the backbone model sets are developed that can be directly used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyzes (PSHA) in Turkey, considering an up-to-date backbone model approach, in order to model the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion. The backbone models are capable of capturing the active shallow crustal and subduction zone seismotectonic features of Turkey as well as seismological features for sub-regions (e.g., North Anatolian Fault Zone, Aegean Region, Marmara Region, etc.). The model sets developed according to the backbone model approach are employed practically for different purposes with PSHA within the scope of the project. The effect of uncertainties captured in detailed ground-motion modeling with respect to backbone model approach is compared with the spectral ordinates provided by the Turkish Seismic Hazard Maps. The multi-period hazard spectra at selected sites around Turkey to represent the full picture are obtained including long periods (up to T = 10 s). Comparisons of these multi-period spectra and two-period idealized design spectra defined in Turkish Building Earthquake Code (2018) are also conducted. To investigate the effects of developed backbone models on the risk analysis, damage and loss calculations are conducted using building stock of Marmara region.
The project outcomes are aimed to be used by researchers and analysts in the field of seismic hazard, different commissions regarding improvements in the Turkish Seismic Hazard Maps and Turkish Building Earthquake Code. The results of earthquake risk assessment studies are aimed to be outputs for institutions that aim to reduce earthquake risk and develop policies in this regard.