A Ground-Motion Logic-Tree Scheme for Regional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Studies

Tuesday, 14 June, 2016
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Rektörlük Toplantı Salonu

Dr. Özkan Kale

A novel methodology to build ground-motion logic-tree frameworks that are capable of capturing the center body and range of ground-motion amplitudes is proposed. The methodology prefers a logic-tree structure and weighting scheme that prevents the dominancy of a specific ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). This strategy can be of use for regional probabilistic seismic hazard since logic trees biased by a specific ground-motion predictive model may cause disparities in hazard for regions represented by large number of sites with complex seismic features. The methodology first identifies a suit of candidate ground-motion prediction equations that can cover the center, body and range of estimated ground motions. The GMPE set is then used for establishing alternative logic trees composed of different weighting schemes to identify the one that would not be biased towards a particular GMPE due to its sensitivity to weighting schemes. The proposed methodology utilizes visual and statistical tools to assess ground motion distributions over large areas that makes it more practical for regional hazard studies.